NMDPRA chief Rabiu Umar says Nigeria is transitioning from a crude exporter into Africa’s refining hub as capacity expands.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) says Nigeria plans to refine all of its crude oil production locally by 2030, as domestic refining capacity expands and the country targets higher output.
According to a report by S&P Global, Nigeria produced 1.74 million barrels of crude per day in June and plans to raise production to 3 million barrels daily by 2030.
The report said Nigeria has historically exported most of its crude to refiners in Europe and Asia but is increasingly focusing on downstream growth to strengthen energy security and boost national revenue.
Why Nigeria wants to end crude exports
NMDPRA Chief Executive Rabiu Umar disclosed the plan at the 49th Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council in Lagos.
He said Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity currently stands at about 1.125 million barrels per day, the highest level in the country’s history, driven largely by the Dangote refinery, which reached its 700,000 bpd nameplate capacity during tests in June and now supplies as much as 80 to 90 per cent of domestic fuel demand.
“The fact that today we have more refining capacity in Nigeria than we’ve ever had, and, of course, with the projects that are on stream and the expansions that we are also going to witness in the coming years, clearly Nigeria is going to turn into a refining hub for Africa,” Umar said.
“Every molecule of our three million barrels per day that we hope to achieve in the coming years will be refined locally.”
Umar said the federal government wants to end the pattern where much of the country’s crude is exported while refined products are imported.
How Nigeria plans to enforce local crude supply
Umar said the NMDPRA has engaged the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to enforce legal provisions requiring local producers to supply crude to the domestic market, under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) established by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
He said the Dangote refinery, which plans to double its processing capacity to 1.4 million bpd, has helped increase domestic refining capacity, and that the authority is working to resolve crude supply shortages faced by local refineries.
NUPRC data published on 10 August showed that 53.7 million barrels of Nigerian crude were supplied to domestic refiners in the second quarter of 2026, of which 52.6 million barrels went to the Dangote refinery.
The upstream regulator said Dangote had been offered a higher volume of 68.1 million barrels, which would have fully met the refinery’s crude requirements.
The Dangote refinery has previously said securing sufficient and reliable crude supply remains a challenge, prompting it to source crude from international markets to support its operations and expansion.
According to S&P Global, the state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was originally meant to supply the majority of the refinery’s crude, but was restricted upon the refinery’s 2024 launch by its own forward-selling commitments.
A NUPRC spokesperson confirmed to Platts, S&P Global’s pricing and news brand, that discussions are ongoing with the NMDPRA, the Ministry of Finance and crude suppliers on enforcing the DCSO provision.
In May, the NUPRC said upstream producers offered 68.7 million barrels of crude to domestic refiners in the first quarter of 2026, but ultimately supplied less than half that volume, attributing the shortfall to pricing differences between producers and domestic refiners.
