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Nigeria’s reserves beat CBN’s full-year forecast, with months to spare

Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to $52.66bn, a 17-year high that beats the CBN’s own 2026 forecast, though net reserves remain far lower.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves rose to $52.66 billion as of August 19, their highest level in more than 17 years, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The figure is up from $45.57 billion on January 2 an increase of about $7.09 billion, or 15.6 percent, in under eight months.

The latest position surpasses the previous 2026 peak of roughly $52.5 billion recorded in mid-July, when reserves first crossed the $52 billion mark for the year and matched the highest level since January 2009. Reserves had dipped earlier in the year, falling from $49.18 billion on April 1 to about $48.33 billion by early May, before rebounding to cross $50 billion in June and then $52 billion in July a gain of roughly $4.33 billion in the three months since the May low.

Above the CBN’s Own Target

CBN

In its 2026 macroeconomic outlook, the CBN had projected reserves would reach about $51.04 billion by year-end. The latest figure already sits roughly $1.62 billion above that projection, with more than four months of the year still remaining.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has attributed the buildup to stronger foreign exchange inflows, including crude-oil-related tax receipts and third-party inflows, as well as sustained investor confidence in the reformed FX market. He said in July that the reserve level provided import cover of about 11 months of goods and services, well above the three-month international benchmark, and noted that the spread between the official exchange rate and the parallel/BDC rate had narrowed to below 2 percent.

Gross Versus Net Reserves

The widely cited reserve figures are gross reserves; Nigeria’s net reserves, which account for forward obligations, swaps and other encumbrances, are substantially lower. Cardoso has said net reserves have risen from about $3 billion when the current CBN leadership took office to more than $40 billion as of mid-July, a distinction that matters for assessing how much of the reserve buffer is genuinely available to defend the naira in a crisis, as opposed to being committed elsewhere.

A Stronger Naira, Slower Inflation

The reserve buildup has coincided with improved FX liquidity and a firmer naira. Market data put the currency at around N1,346.49–N1,346.90 per dollar in the official market in the past week, a narrow discrepancy across reporting that was not resolved in available data, though both figures point to the same broad range. Headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91 percent in June, down from 15.93 percent in May, with core and food inflation also declining, according to CBN data.

The Monetary Policy Committee held the benchmark interest rate at 26.5 percent at its July meeting, along with the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45 percent for commercial banks and 16 percent for merchant banks, suggesting the apex bank is not yet ready to ease policy despite the improving reserve and inflation picture.

Behind the Numbers

CBN officials have tied the reserve build to roughly 34 months of policy changes, including a bruising bank recapitalisation exercise, the introduction of a Non-Resident Bank Verification Number system aimed at formalising diaspora and foreign investor participation, a new B-Match foreign exchange trading platform, and a benchmark overnight financing rate intended to anchor the naira market more predictably. Monthly diaspora remittances have risen above $600 million, with the CBN targeting roughly $1 billion a month by the end of 2026 as part of efforts to grow reserves through recurring inflows rather than one-off measures.

For context on the scale of the turnaround, Nigeria’s gross external reserves stood at just $39.07 billion in September 2024meaning the current $52.66 billion figure represents growth of roughly 35 percent in under two years.

Cardoso has said the reserve buildup is intended to protect against external shocks and currency volatility, rather than to fund routine government expenditure or serve as the market’s day-to-day source of dollar liquidity.

Fattyma Ibrahim

Fattyma Zahra Ibrahim is a writer, and storyteller who believes in the power of words to inform, connect, and make people think. With a love for culture, history, and stories about society, she brings curiosity and authenticity to everything she writes. Her work reflects a belief that good storytelling should not only tell a story, but also make people pause, question, and see things from a different perspective.

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