Brent crude fell 8.7% to $94.62 a barrel as US election losses fuel hopes Trump could seek an end to the Iran war, raising questions about Nigeria’s oil revenue.
Brent crude fell about 8.7 per cent to settle near $94.62 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest level since early September, as traders bet that Republican losses in the US midterm elections will push President Donald Trump towards ending the war with Iran.
Brent traded near $118 on Friday and is down more than 14 per cent this week. Intraday figures during Wednesday put the benchmark at about $94.79, down about 8.5 per cent.
Why the oil price fell
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on Tuesday, Reuters and CNBC reported. Trump acknowledged on Tuesday night that the war contributed in part to the losses, though he said he had no regrets about it. Vice President JD Vance went further on Wednesday. “The reason we lost is the war,” he wrote on X.
Analysts said Vance’s post helped drive the sell-off. Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James called it a “key catalyst”, but said a “durable off-ramp” was needed for prices to fall further. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said: “The elections are leading the market to conclude that Trump might now be inclined to make a deal.”
Trump said on Tuesday he was not planning an imminent attack on Iran. Washington confirmed limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island on Monday.
Tehran gave no sign of shifting. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement on Wednesday that US hostility would persist regardless of which party holds power. “The US sees the end of its hegemony as distant; we see it as near,” he said. A senior Iranian official told reporters on Tuesday that Iran and the US remained far from a deal to end the war.
The US and Israel launched the war in late February. Khamenei’s father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening strikes.
What the oil price fall means for Nigeria
Brent remains about $30 above the $64.85 benchmark used for Nigeria’s 2026 budget, so the fall does not immediately threaten oil revenue. The bigger constraint is output. The budget assumes 1.84 million barrels per day, while production in August was roughly 1.5 to 1.7 million, depending on whether condensates are counted.
Cheaper crude could ease pressure on fuel prices. Dangote refinery’s gantry prices have tracked international crude. None of the reports reviewed said the refinery has cut its price.
