APC brought 31 governors and a shock-and-awe campaign to Osun. Adeleke still won by the widest margin since 2014.
We co-hosted an X Space ahead of yesterday’s Osun Governorship election, and APC‘s strengths emerged very clearly from the conversation: it was banking on its clout as arguably the most formidable ruling party in Nigeria’s history, with 31 of 36 States solidly under its control.
Many of the Governors of those States were physically present in Osun for the election, as part of a shock-and-awe campaign incursion.
But there was a question the party didn’t convincingly answer: what compelling vision was it offering to the people of Osun State that made it a better alternative to the incumbent Governor Adeleke and his Accord Party?
APC’s three charges against Adeleke
The APC’s campaign against him appeared to rest primarily on the following counts: nepotism (running the State with several family members appointed into his government), favoritism (concentrating the bulk of infrastructure in his Ede zone), and accountability (failing to account for the hundreds of billions of Naira that have accrued to him over the last four years, way more money than any other Governor before him).
Given the nature of Nigeria’s politics, the first two charges are weak, because everyone does it. Adeleke had an answer for the third one, prompt and full payment of public workers’ salaries (big deal?), and a multitude of road projects across the State, many in places abandoned by previous administrations. The allegations of poor-quality construction by his critics did not go very far.
How APC’s aggression backfired
Ultimately, APC’s somewhat aggressive campaign strategy made Adeleke look like the underdog. Social media was dominated by APC supporters, on our X Space we struggled to get anyone to speak for Adeleke and Accord.
It also didn’t help that the APC-led Federal Government has withheld over 200 billion Naira in statutory allocations meant for Osun’s 30 local government areas (LGAs) since 2025, alleging impropriety in the LGA elections conducted by Governor Adeleke on February 22, 2025.
Barely two weeks to the election, the almighty Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) froze an Osun State Government account, a move that drew a stinging public rebuke from President Tinubu over its timing.
And then, days to the elections, an APC Senator was caught on tape ordering death on Accord supporters. The controversy that followed did APC no favors.
The making of an underdog
All of these no doubt combined to garner mounting waves of sympathy for Governor Adeleke. Nigerians love their ‘big men’, but they also love underdogs. And despite being the incumbent, Adeleke somehow managed to come off as the latter, helped by APC’s relentless onslaught. If there were any fence-sitters dropping off at the last minute, it’s very likely they’d have fallen into the Accord side.
And let’s give it to him. Governor Adeleke is a likeable fellow, a politician with pomp and personality (and a celebrity nephew who came all out for him) on a rather drab landscape. It was easy for many voters to think: this likeable, dancing, happy-go-lucky fella has done nothing wrong, why do all these powerful people seem so desperate to get him out?
Those voters ended up giving him the widest winning margin in Osun governorship elections since 2014.
