IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warns AI could augment, downgrade or eliminate 40% of global jobs, with young workers particularly vulnerable to losing entry-level opportunities.

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), says artificial intelligence (AI) could augment, downgrade or eliminate about 40 percent of jobs globally.

Georgieva spoke on Monday during a panel discussion at the 2026 IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. She described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” for the labour market, saying its effects are already becoming visible in advanced economies.

“The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40 percent jobs either augmented, or downgraded, or eliminated,” she said.

What the IMF Has Found So Far

Georgieva said IMF research in the United States found that about 10 percent of jobs already require AI skills, which tend to attract higher pay. She said routine and repetitive jobs are shrinking, while employment is growing in areas such as data-centre construction and services.

According to the IMF chief, the net employment impact in the area covered by the US study was positive, but much of the growth was concentrated in lower-paying jobs.

Georgieva said young people are especially vulnerable because entry-level positions often provide the first opportunity to gain experience and move up in a career.

“Normally, they would get into these routine, repetitive jobs and then grow up the ranks. But if they’re gone, young workers could find it harder to establish themselves in the labour market,” she said.

She urged governments to study changes in employment patterns, reform education systems and promote lifelong learning to help workers adapt.

“We cannot today imagine what exactly the world of work will be five years from now, but we can be disciplined and carefully assess what is happening, and then draw lessons. But most importantly, act on them,” she said.

Georgieva also warned that AI could complicate government revenue collection if economic activity shifts away from labour towards capital. She said governments need to consider how they would raise enough revenue to help societies adapt to changes in the world of work.

Exposure Varies Across Economies

The IMF chief said AI’s impact would differ from one economy to another. Estimates suggest that about 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI, compared with 40 percent globally. For low-income countries, reports of Georgieva’s remarks differ, putting the figure at either 23 or 26 percent. She cautioned that poorer countries are not better off, saying the lower figure reflects AI being “further away,” not any protection from it.

Georgieva also said spending on AI infrastructure is helping to hold global growth near 3 percent, and that adopting AI could lift growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in advanced Asia.

World Bank Backs ‘Small AI’

Also speaking at the event, World Bank President Ajay Banga said “small AI” can promote the use of locally adapted artificial intelligence tools to improve productivity and support job creation in developing economies. Small AI refers to applications tailored to local languages, infrastructure and budgets, rather than expensive large language models.

“The opportunity from small AI to build jobs and build productivity is enormous,” he said.

Banga said such tools could help address practical problems in healthcare, agriculture and other sectors, particularly where access to advanced technology and specialist services is limited. He cited a clinic in Indonesia where a nurse could photograph a patient’s skin condition with a basic mobile phone and share it with a doctor or a locally developed AI tool, helping decide whether the patient needed treatment at the clinic or a referral to a specialist.

He also cited an agricultural platform being developed with Google’s help to connect farmers and cooperatives to improved seeds, fertilisers, crop insurance, credit and better prices. The technology could also let farmers identify crop diseases using mobile phones and get information on how to respond.

The World Bank’s Jobs Strategy

Banga said the bank’s jobs strategy focuses on five sectors: infrastructure, agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism and value-added manufacturing. He said these could produce locally relevant employment without relying only on the traditional model of outsourcing jobs from advanced economies to developing countries.

“The first is infrastructure; it’s construction, but then what it enables: bridges, roads, airports, digitisation, electricity, water, but also human infrastructure in terms of skilling and education,” he said.

He said developing economies could also use AI to help small businesses and entrepreneurs by making technology and market access more affordable. Banga noted that about 1.2 billion young people will turn 18 over the next 15 years, and that the private sector, which already generates 75 to 85 percent of jobs in any country, will have to absorb most of them.

However, he said countries would need reliable electricity, digital infrastructure, appropriate skills and policies that encourage investment to take advantage of the technology. The aim, he said, is to use AI as a productivity enhancer in emerging markets, particularly in sectors that can expand employment and improve access to essential services.